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I dont' know for sure what the ride height on a 2wd is compared to a 4wd but I would think a 30 to 31 inch would fit. if the 31 rubbed it would only probably be on the very inner part of the wheel well by the frame. thats assuming with a 7 inch wide wheel with factory backspacing.
I've never had anything bigger then a 235 on my explorers with factory wheels, so maybe someone else will chime in.
15" wheels can fit up to 31/10.5R15 which is nearly the same as 255/75R16 for 16" wheels.
Some people say that big won't wear evenly. Some say they do. They will cause your speedometer to read a few MPH lower than actual speed, which also falsely calculates out to lower fuel economy, but they will also really achieve a little lower fuel economy.
A little more conservative might be 30/9.5R15 or 255/70R16.