If I was gonna guess at it.... I can think of two conditions that could cause that: One would be a side impact on an axle shaft like someone getting side-swiped on the rear 1/4 panel, and the other would be a rollover or tripping condition. Here's my rationale:
Ordinarily, there is no (or very minimal) load on the pin. All that pin does is hold the axle shafts apart from each other. If that pin was to break where it did while the axle was rotating, I suspect there would be evidence of such on the housing where it tried to spin it out. I suspect that, in reality, the pin might spin out far enough that it wedges itself in the housing, causing the carrier to grenade, and the inside wouldn't look anywhere near as nice as it does.
Now, I suppose it's remotely possible that it broke years ago and the piece has been sitting in the bottom of the canter section, but the odds of it not rolling over and getting caught someplace it shouldn't be are pretty remote. Also, it holds one of the spider gears in place, and without it, things might be OK, but only until the first time they made a turn, at which point it would likely have spit the spider gear out. Again, had it happened on the road, I doubt it would stay out of harm's way for long.
So, that leads me to a side impact of some sort.... got sideswiped, rolled over and tumbled, or something along those lines. Check the axle shafts for bends at the flange ends. I'd almost bet dollars to doughnuts that one of the axle shafts is bent. Also, check the squareness of the spring perches. Odds are they're fine as the spring bushings and u-bolts will flex long before the axle tubes even try to move.
My best guess. {Vincent LaGuardia Gambini voice on} Ms. Vito, does the defendant's case hold water? {/voice}
-Joe