The bottom line is, without measurements, you are guessing. If you're good at this, you can guess correctly almost all the time. I have been humbled many times in 40 years of A/C work, and I'm good at it.
So, you're going to need pressure gauges in the end. Buy them now and use them in the beginning. That should nail it down.
You can't really calculate an energy budget with a v-belt instead of the amps and volts that you can measure on an electrical compressor. You might guess that the belt is gripping or it's slipping, but I have already seen a compressor blow out a high side seal without the belt slipping, so that is not a valid clue. The only concrete evidence you can get is in measuring pressures and temperatures. Start measuring.