TBN is reduced by acids in the oil. Filtration has no effect on this number. The main source of the acids is sulfur and nitrogen compounds in the fuel. These compounds form sulfuric and nitric acid during the combustion process. Fuels vary by region and refinery. Unless you are running identical fuel (i.e. from the same gas station) you will see differences in TBN. Keep in mind that any given brand of fuel is different throughout regions, and even within a city. It can even vary at the same gas station depending on where the last load of gas came from.
Al, your used oil analysis looks good. I'll give you my amateur read on it. Wear metals (Al, Cr, Fe, Cu, Pb, Sn, Ni, Mn, Si, Ti) are low, especially considering the total miles on this sample.
Additive compounds (Mo, B, Na, Ca, Mg, P, Zn, Ba) are oil specific. These numbers are in ranges commonly found in oils.
Potassium is from antifreeze. This low number indicates that there is no antifreeze present.
Silicon is from dirt, usually throught the air filtration system. Your number looks good indicating that the air filtration system is tight.
TBN is decreasing with mileage as is expected. The TBN method Blackstone uses has a lower safety limit of 1.0. You are above this lower limit, so there is enough "active ingredient" for continued use.
The viscosity is out of range for a 30 weight. There is a lot of debate about the effects of high viscosity. One well document effect is decreased fuel mileage. If high fuel mileage is a concern for you, you may consider changing the oil.
Flashpoint, fuel, antifreeze, and water all look good indicating no coolant or fuel leaks into the oil system.
Insolubles is high at 0.5%. Many oil analyzers consider 0.5% the upper limit, and an indication that the oil should be changed. I would suggest changing the oil filter and resampling in a few thousand miles to see if the insolubles come down. If they don't, then an oil change is indicated.
General comment. This extended oil change seems to be working well for you, Al. However, different driving patterns (short trips vs. long highway miles), different fuels, different states of engine tune, etc. will have a tremendous impact on the optimal oil change frequency. Even fuel economy comes into play. The lower the fuel mileage, the more frequently the oil should be changed. The fuel contaminants previously mentioned accumulate in the oil based on how much fuel is burned. Therefore more fuel = more contaminants which lowers TBN.
I would caution anyone reading this to not draw general conclusions about oil change frequency, and apply them specifically to your vehicle. If one is interested in optimal OCIs, do as Al does and start your own sampling program.
Keep us updated, Al.