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Ford in trouble???

JGAMBLE said:
been a lot of discussion about this on ford-trucks.com. While ford is still ahead of the game they haven't been doing well for the past few years. Yes the F150 is the best selling truck, but most of the sales are fleet sales and they don't make as much money off each sale as the competition. They have recently halted any further testing of the triton engine replacement also. The cobra is gonna decease soon, the lightning is already gone, they're having more recalls than any other manufacturer right now. I seem to remember that ford was actually poised to take #1 from chevy in the mid-nineties and now this :( Personally I think a lot of this can be attributed to the triton engine series, poor performers, but not all of it. Ford needs to get on the ball, there's talk of Toyota buying em out. :eek:

There are a lot of misleading statements in this post. The Cobra is not going to decease and the Lightning was postponed not cancelled. The next Cobra will be an '06 model. The reason they postponed the lightning was to focus on getting the Cobra done, among other things. The engine they stopped development on was the Hurricane and it wasn't really considered a Triton replacement. It was more like an addition to the family. They have plenty of room to get more power out of the existing Triton engines so it only made sense. Where did you get the "they're having more recalls than any other manufacturer" from? Show me! How you can say a 300HP motor is a poor performer is beyond me. And the Toyota buying them out was an internet rumor that, while very funny, is completely based out of fiction.

I would put a little less confidence in what you read on internet forums.
 



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Stephen said:
Did you read my post lol? Thats because Ford has much more fleet sales than Toyota, or anyone else. Most of those F150s are sold to fleets, and the only reason is because they're cheap. As for the Explorer it used to do over 400,000 units a year...

Thats what Bill Ford is saying, selling cars at a loss and doing extensive fleet sales just to be "the best selling..." isn't profitable for the company nor does it grow brand image.

Fleets sales or not the Toyota Tundra is not even in the top ten selling VEHICLES which includes cars or trucks. The #10 spot goes to the Taurus with something like 280,000 vehicles. I don't think Ford sold 700,000 F150s to fleet sales. The Explorer is still selling more than anyone else, even though the number of competitors has gone up. That counts for something!
 






blichy: I should have said F series trucks, don't know why I said F150s in particular but you're 100% correct.

Naples Bill: I never said anything about the Tundra. American carmakers undoubtedly own the pickup truck market as well they should since its a type of vehicle they invented.

And why don't you think Ford sold 700,000 F series to fleets? Probably not 700,000 but I would bet 550-600,000 are sold to fleets with the rest being private sales.

As for the Taurus, thats almost COMPLETELY fleet sales, the Explorer is extensively sold to fleets also. A few years ago it was determined that when you remove fleet sales from the numbers, the Grand Cherokee was undoubtedly better selling to private customers than the Explorer.

Thats just the point, the # of sales don't mean anything, thats what Bill Ford is saying. Selling vehicles at any price even at a loss (which Ford does routinely, I can walk into a Ford dealer tomorrow and buy a new Ford Explorer Limited $12,000 off the list price, that was not the case when I bought the 3 Explorers I've had in 1994, 1995, and late 1997. The Explorer was in demand then, it isn't at all now) just to be on some stupid best selling list is bad business, Bill Ford is saying "Let GM do that if they want, we're going to make money on every car line and let the sales fall where they may". Meaning less fleet sales, less rebates, and more private business. Sales figures mean nothing if you're not making money, and right now Ford isn't.
 






MSNBC said:
According to a recent report from Merrill Lynch, in the second quarter of 2004, the American automakers' fleet sales as a percentage of total sales was 27.8 percent.

Stephen, the things you're saying are way over exaggerated. To say there is no demand for the Explorer and that more than half of F150 sales are fleet seem a little ridiculous to me. Where are you getting these numbers? Also, Ford had a NET profit of $3.5 billion in 2004 so they are making money. Granted, Ford Credit helps add to that number. Also, the F150 outsold GM and Dodge with incentives that were usually half of what GM and Dodge were offering yet they still GAINED truck market share for the year. The Titan took sales away from GM and Dodge and had no effect on Ford.

As far as the Taurus, who cares, the car is on it's last leg. The Fusion will be replacing it. Ford has been reducing fleet sales so I think your estimations of the number of fleet sales are way off. If you can show me some real facts and numbers then I'll believe it. I'm not trying to be confrontational just wondering where this info is coming from.
 






Right, 27.8% over all American carmakers and all models. Most models have zero fleet sales, meaning that 27% is dilluted over the entire market line and those fleet sales are all clustered somewhere. Where is it? Its in trucks (the most common fleet vehicle) and other common fleet vehicles like economy and midsized cars. Remember that they didnt sell 700,000 F150s, they sold 700,000 F SERIES trucks, including all the lines in the F model, 250, 350 etc. Think about it, do you see as many privately driven F150s as Explorers? No, so it doesn't make sense that the F150 sells almost 5 times better than the Explorer to private citizens.

You're right about Ford reducing fleet sales and there's been a reduction in their sales number over the last few years. If this weren't a problem it wouldn't be #1 on Bill Ford's list. As for gaining truck market share, you really have no idea what Ford sells a fleet of 500 F series trucks to one company for per-unit. Incentives have no real bearing on fleet sales.

As for real facts and numbers I'll see what I can find, the article about the Explorer and the Grand Cherokee is long gone, I'd have no idea where to find that. Most of my information comes from people I know in the auto industry and from labor officials. I keep tabs on pricing and demand for car models that interest me, one of which is the Explorer. Sales have steeply declined over the last 5 years for the Explorer and demand (a function of price sold and average time spent on the lot) has also steeply declined. This is why Ford introduced the Freestyle, the trend in the market is shifting away from truck based SUVs and towards crossover types of vehicles that retain much of the utility of an SUV without the drawbacks in ride and comfort and economy. The Explorer and the GM SUVs are ancient next to vehicles like the new Grand Cherokee and increasingly inexpensive offerings from luxury brands.
 






I'm not going to do a lot of this tonight, its late but here's a few tidbits I found poking around

Perhaps one of the problems that some people, especially at GM and Ford, have is that when they think about the U.S. consumer, they think in terms of the mass, the consumers, not in terms of the individual consumer. And so they think that they have to take some sort of an approach that's based on providing a "deal," which in their mind equates with low prices parlayed through rebates, discounts and other financial offerings. But we are individuals. We generally buy cars one at a time. And when we buy a car or truck and have a great experience with it, we tend to become loyal to the brand and we tell others about our experience. Let's face it: there are a whole lot of other cars out there that cost less than a Camry yet may seem to be the same on a spreadsheet. But that seeming isn't real. How many people have bought a Camry then because they felt they'd gotten value for money (1) bought another one; (2) told their friends; (3) moved up to Lexus? Based on the numbers, I'd have to answer "a lot."

Sure, some people need basic transportation. Some people don't want to spend a whole lot on trucks and cars. Some people are completely indifferent to what they drive. But there are plenty of people for whom getting value is more important than getting a deal, and while the number of these people may not represent the "mass," the margins that can be gained by the OEMs from them is certainly better.

DaimlerChrysler aided by incentives

DETROIT Offering more than $1,000 in sales incentives and a range of new sport utility models helped the Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler and several Japanese automakers to increase their sales in January even as General Motors and Ford Motor posted declines.
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Chrysler said its sales increased 9 percent last month compared with the same month in 2003 after adjusting for there being one extra selling day last month. Including Mercedes, sales for DaimlerChrysler overall rose 7.7 percent, according to Ward's AutoInfoBank, a data tracking service in Southfield, Michigan. The Dodge Durango sport utility vehicle led the sales surge at Chrysler. Sales of the new Durango rose 38 percent, with 50 percent of buyers paying more for the option of a V-8 Hemi engine.
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Nissan Motor's sales rose 25 percent, and Toyota Motor sales were up 15.8 percent, to 143,729 vehicles, its best January ever, the automaker said.
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By contrast, overall sales at GM slipped 2 percent as a 17 percent decline in car sales overshadowed a 13 percent increase in truck sales. GM's market share slipped to 26 percent from the 28 percent it had for all of 2003.
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"It was a disappointing month in terms of market share, and yes, we will have to pick up the pace," said Paul Ballew, chief GM sales analyst. He added repeatedly throughout a conference call that no one should overreact to one month's sales.
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Overall sales at Ford, also affected by a sharp decline in car sales, slipped 9 percent, according to Ward's. Ford sold 14 percent fewer cars last month than in January 2003. Truck sales declined 4.8 percent, Ward's said, despite a 10 percent increase for the redesigned F-150 pickup. The sales surge for Chrysler was helped by an incentives program called Zero Plus, which offered buyers a no-interest loan plus $2,000 cash back on almost all Chrysler vehicles. The incentive helped drive double-digit sales increases for both the Jeep and Chrysler brands.
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"It worked, and we're going to promote it even louder this month," said Gary Dilts, Chrysler vice president for sales.
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Nissan's sales were helped by sizable incentives on two of its models. The 2003 Sentra compact came with a $2,500 cash rebate or low-interest financing in January, and its sales were up 17 percent. Buyers of the 2004 Altima midsize sedan received $1,500 cash back or a low interest rate, and its sales jumped 26 percent. Both of those incentives will remain through February, the company said.
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Nissan also benefited from brisk sales of two new models, neither of which came with incentives. It said it sold 2,330 Pathfinder Armada SUV's in January and 4,035 Titans, its first full-size pickup.
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At the end of last year, many auto executives said their companies would reduce the size and availability of incentives, especially as the economy and consumer confidence improved. But as January sales figures show, rebates, low-interest loans and other incentives remain a common tool to bolster sales, with almost every major car company offering some kind of incentive on a variety of vehicles.
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"Some of the best New Year's resolutions don't last too long," said Bob Brisco, chief executive of CarsDirect.com, which tracks incentives and pricing through more than 3,000 dealers. "Large incentives over the past few years have trained consumers to always look for a deal."

And here are the actual sales for 2004, that previous list must have been YTD sales for July

Ford F-Series
939,511

Chevrolet Silverado
680,768

Toyota Camry
426,990

Dodge Ram
426,289

Honda Accord
386,770

Ford Explorer
339,333

Honda Civic
309,196

Chevrolet Impala
290,259

Chevrolet TrailBlazer
283,484

Ford Taurus
248,148

These numbers seem more reasonable to me. You've still got a 140,000 unit drop on the Explorer for 3-4 years ago

I'll look for some lists of fleet sales tomorrow, I'm headed to bed.
 






Stephen said:
blichy: I should have said F series trucks, don't know why I said F150s in particular but you're 100% correct.

Naples Bill: I never said anything about the Tundra. American carmakers undoubtedly own the pickup truck market as well they should since its a type of vehicle they invented.

And why don't you think Ford sold 700,000 F series to fleets? Probably not 700,000 but I would bet 550-600,000 are sold to fleets with the rest being private sales.

As for the Taurus, thats almost COMPLETELY fleet sales, the Explorer is extensively sold to fleets also. A few years ago it was determined that when you remove fleet sales from the numbers, the Grand Cherokee was undoubtedly better selling to private customers than the Explorer.

I think that some people may be thinking that fleet sales are only rental fleets. I wouldn't be surprised if 1/2 of the salse of F-Series (at least SuperDuties) are to fleets--this would include municipalities, businesses that buy several vehicles, and the such.
 






Yes, fleet sales include but are not limited to rental fleets. When Ford sells one truck to a one man landscaping company thats a fleet sale, its any sale to a company for company use. Technically, actually not even technically definately my Lexus is a fleet vehicle, its leased by my company for my use, its insured through their fleet insurance right alongside our big tractor trailers.

If you run a carfax on it it is registered "As a corporate fleet vehicle".
 






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