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Projected 2020 Explorer ST Resale Value

PutInBay

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Joined
July 28, 2019
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City, State
Missouri
Year, Model & Trim Level
Jeep Wrangler
Hello,

I currently own a Jeep Wrangler, and I'm looking to buy a 2020 Explorer ST. I've owned several Wranglers over the past 12 years, and I think it's high time to change it up a bit :).

I know that all vehicles depreciate, and I know that a vehicle is NOT an investment. But one thing I always loved about my Wranglers is that I could always count on them holding their value really well, year-over-year, whereby, I could usually drive my Wranglers for roughly $200 a month in depreciation, from the moment I buy them, to the moment I sell them (I've owned 7 Wranglers since 2007, and usually get in and out of them every 18 months or so - it's kind of a hobby for me).

Couple of caveats with my process: I always buy new (better on resale when I'm the original owner), I always pay cash, so that I do not incur any interest charges, I always sell Private Party, so that I can get the most money possible, I never buy extras, like an extended warranty, etc., I always buy below invoice as much as possible, and I never put any additional money into my vehicles (breaks, tires, etc.), so that I can keep my total cost of ownership as low as possible. I usually put roughly 15,000 miles on my Wranglers before I swap them out, which also helps on resale, obviously. Also, here in Missouri, we only pay taxes on the difference between the new vehicle price and the previous vehicle price, so usually, my tax bite isn't too bad (couple-few hundred dollars). I do not factor in taxes as part of my monthly cost.

That being said, I wonder what kind of monthly depreciation I could expect to see with a 2020 Explorer ST? I definitely want to buy one, but I am concerned there will be heavy rebates in roughly 9-12 months, which will drive down the overall valuation, which will hurt resale. I definitely plan on selling it within 18 months of purchase, so that I can rinse and repeat my process above. Buying and selling cars is kind of a hobby for me, BUT I will only do these deals if I can stay within my monthly depreciation parameters of roughly $200 per month. I have no problem paying $200 per month for $60k vehicle :).

Thanks!
 



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Just to make sure I understand correctly, you swap vehicles every 15,000 miles?
 






Just to make sure I understand correctly, you swap vehicles every 15,000 miles?

Yes. 15k miles seems to be roughly the sweet spot for me, in terms of getting the most money on resale, and staying within my target of $200 per month in total depreciation. But that’s just my experience. Your mileage may very (pun intended :)).
 






^^ Welcome to the Forum.:wave:

Peter
 






You will probably loose around 10K the day you purchase your ST and drive it off the lot brand new.
 












You will probably loose around 10K the day you purchase your ST and drive it off the lot brand new.

Yikes! That’s a lot! That means my purchase price would need to be roughly $50k for a $60k MSRP vehicle, so that I could sell it for roughly $46k 18 months after I buy it, based on my process mentioned above.
 












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