There is always some risk to both parties.
If you don't purchase it, you risk the expense of whatever breakdown comes along.
If you do purchase it, you risk not getting your money's worth out of it.
If Ford sells it to you, they risk you getting your money's worth out of it.
If Ford doesn't sell it to you, they risk you going to someone else for repairs.
But the fact that dealerships (and electronics retailers) push so hard to sell you the extended service contract should be an indication of how heavily the odds are stacked in their favor.
Think about it; have you ever paid nearly $2000 to repair a vehicle that has a failure after 41k miles, but with less than 90k miles on it? Perhaps you have, and if so, you're one of the unlucky minority. But if you, like most people, have not, then you are precisely why the dealership is so interested in seeing you hand over money for repairs that they will probably never have to provide.
So your mileage may vary, as they say. You could be the individual who drives the car off the lot, uses it for 30 days (the used car default warranty), and then sometime between the 2nd month and the 36th month has a catastrophic failure in the engine or transmission. If that's you, you would probably wish you had purchased the $2000 warranty. But what are the odds of that being you? The dealership is betting that those sorts of situations are far and few between. I tend to agree.